The political sands in Whitehall are beginning to shift and this potentially means that seismic change could be in the offing. There will, of course, be winners and indeed losers as there always are when a reshuffle takes place within Westminster. In Andy Burnham’s case, the chips could fall in such a way that the Mayor of Greater Manchester is chosen as the next leader of the Labour Party.
Hot on the Bookies’ Cards
The latest odds as far as betting on politics with Betfair price Burnham at odds of just 4/1 to become the leader of the Labour Party if Sir Keir Starmer, for whatever reason, leaves his role. In fact, the betting tips on politics make Burnham the outright favourite to become the next leader of Labour but it wouldn’t be straightforward and as things stand, the 52-year-old wouldn’t actually be eligible to lead the opposition.
https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1537333597509672960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Indeed, as the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham isn’t in a position to replace Starmer given that he isn’t a sitting MP. Of course, this could change if Burnham was asked to contest the byelection of Starmer’s constituency, which is Holborn and St Pancras, should the 59-year-old not be in a position to carry on. The current Labour leader has held this seat since 2015 and if he were to leave, then the thinking would be to put Burnham’s name forward in order to fast-track his position into Whitehall.
Ways to the Top
Alternatively, Burnham could be made an MP by taking over a constituency from a party member that is set to retire, like Harriet Harman, who will step down after the next election. Of course, this isn’t always a given with voters against the idea that their support is unconditional. In Harman’s case, however, the MP for Camberwell and Peckham has a majority of close to 34,000 so you can picture a scenario where Burnham is able to hold onto those votes, especially as he has a positive nationwide profile.
Put another way, Burnham is incredibly well thought of in Labour circles and wouldn’t necessarily have a problem taking over a constituency that may have warmed to the incumbent. Essentially, this is because the 52-year-old has an exemplary record as Mayor of Greater Manchester and has shown that he has the attributes to lead at the very top of British politics.
Finally, the only other problem that may stand in Burnham’s way is Sadiq Khan, who yes, is in the same position as the Mayor of London, but that doesn’t rule out the fact that the 51-year-old may have similar aspirations to lead the Labour Party. In this sense, you can easily imagine a scenario where Khan also begins plotting his own course that ends up with him as the leader of the opposition.
#Breaking Labour’s Sadiq Khan has been re-elected as Mayor of London pic.twitter.com/NsNaHvbjiD
— PA Media (@PA) May 8, 2021
It is, however, worth saying that Khan’s odds on replacing Starmer are at 25/1, which indicates that Burnham is still the frontrunner as things stand, with the Mayor of London currently not the automatic choice as successor among party members.
With all of the above in mind, you would have to say that Burnham could certainly become the next leader of Labour but that it would take some meticulous forward planning and faultless execution to make him eligible.
