The Government may close schools and restrict travel throughout the nation in the event of a severe outbreak of coronavirus in Britain, leaked official papers reveal.

The “reasonable worst case” involves “up to 80% of the population being infected”, according to documents produced by the UK National Security Communications Team.

The memo seen by the Sun newspaper warns that “the current planning assumption is that two to three per cent of symptomatic cases will result in a ­fatality” – which would mean that around half a million people would be killed by the virus.

The document adds that once the virus starts spreading, infection rates will snowball for two to three months.

Switzerland, Austria, Croatia and mainland Spain have all recorded their first cases, while the death toll from the Covid-19 disease has risen in Italy.

World Health Organization (WHO) expert Dr Bruce Aylward has urged countries worldwide to “think the virus is going to show up tomorrow”, warning: “If you don’t think that way, you’re not going to be ready.”

There have been more new detections of coronavirus outside China than inside, in a major turning point in the international spread of Covid-19, the World Health Organization reports.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the WHO, highlighted what appeared to be a slowing in the rate of new infections inside China, where the outbreak began, as well as a number of countries that appeared to have nipped incipient outbreaks in the bud.

The Six Nations Ireland vs. Italy games have been postponed, Tokyo 2020 is under threat and even the Mission: Impossible team has met its match, halting filming in Venice for the latest movie due to the virus.

However Matt Hancock, the health secretary, today urged schools not to “overeact” to the coronavirus as he tried to quell panic closures.

Health chiefs are understood to be frustrated that schools are ignoring official advice — ten have shut their doors following half-term trips by staff or pupils to Italy, and many others are sending students home.

He told the Commons this afternoon that “If anyone has been in contact with a suspected case in a childcare or an educational setting, no special measures are required while test results are awaited. There is no need to close the school or send other students or staff home.”

He said: “Once the results arrive, those who test negative will be advised individually about returning to education. In most cases, closure of the childcare or education setting will be unnecessary, but this will be a local decision based on various factors including professional advice.”

 

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