New analysis published by the TUC shows that young workers (aged 25 and under) in the North West face the highest risk of unemployment due to the coronavirus crisis.
Workers in all sectors of the economy face employment risks due to the coronavirus crisis and the recession that is expected to follow.
However, two sectors are at much higher risk of losing jobs compared to others: ‘accommodation and food’ and ‘arts, entertainment and recreation’.
Their analysis uses three measures to assess risk, rate of furloughed workers, the proportion of businesses that have paused or cancelled trading, and the proportion of businesses with turnover falling more than 50%.
These two sectors not only rate the highest for all three measures, they are also in a league of their own, with rates far exceeding the construction sector in third place.
The analysis suggests that, without urgent action, the North West may be on the brink of a surge in youth unemployment.
Of 508,000 UK workers aged 25 and under in the North West, 108,000 work in accommodation and food, or arts, entertainment and recreation.
It means that 21% of North West workers aged 25 and under work in these two sectors, compared to 5% for workers older than 25.
North West workers aged 25 and under are therefore four times more likely to work in one of the two sectors where jobs are at greatest risk.
In addition to lay offs, recessions make it much harder for young people seeking to enter the labour market for the first time, as employers are doing much less hiring. This is part of the reason why youth unemployment following a recession tends to be much higher than for other workers.
UK job vacancies have already fallen 25% compared to this time last year. And the sector with the biggest fall is accommodation and food (42%).
The TUC is calling for a job guarantee scheme to stop those without work becoming long-term unemployed, with early access to the scheme for young workers.
It would resemble the future jobs fund, which was part of the national recovery plan following the recession in 2008 caused by the private banking crisis. A government evaluation found that two years after starting the programme, participants were 27% more likely to be in unsubsidised work.
TUC Regional Secretary James McKenna said:
“We know it’s a tough road ahead. But the more people in work, the faster we can work our way out of recession.
“Our regional recovery plan must be centred on jobs – both protecting those we have and creating more. We need more good jobs in social care, in the green tech that our future depends on, in UK start-ups and in a revitalised manufacturing sector.
“For those who lose their jobs, the government must set up a job guarantee scheme. Young people in particular can’t be left to the misery of long-term unemployment. And it’s the best value option for the Treasury.
“If we make sure everyone has a decent job on a fair wage, we can recover faster and build back better.”
