The decision to lower the assessment from Severe – meaning an attack is highly likely – was made by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC).
Substantial is the third of five ratings at which the threat level can stand.
The UK’s terrorism threat level was raised to the highest rating, “critical”, in May 2017 after the Manchester Arena bombing.
Head of Counter Terrorism Policing, Assistant Commissioner Neil Basu, says:
The reduction to ‘Substantial’ indicates positive developments in reducing the threat from terrorism but still means an attack is likely.
Counter Terrorism Policing has around 800 live CT investigations nationally and 24 attack plots have been thwarted since the atrocity in Westminster in March 2017. So it is vital that we all maintain a high level of vigilance and continue to invest in strong protective security measures to deter future attacks
The UK was last at Substantial in August 2014. Since then it has been at Severe, rising briefly to Critical on two occasions.
