A poll out this morning ahead of the Labour Party Conference projects a Reform UK majority if a General Election were held today.
The poll by More in Common based on polling of nearly 20,000 Britons, the model estimates that Reform would take 373 seats with Labour reduced to double digits.
The Conservatives are pushed into fourth place – with only 41 MPs with Reform UK are projected to a 96 seat majority
For the first time, an MRP has projected Labour on fewer than 100 seats – losing over 300 of the seats they won in 2024.
If an election were held today it would spell disaster for many Greater Manchester Labour MP’s with only four constituencies in the region, Withington,Rusholme, Stretford and Gorton and Denton remaining Red
All the other constituencies would fall to Reform apart from Hazel Grove and Cheadle which would stay with the Liberal Democrat’s
Notable casualties would include Deputy Leadership candidate Lucy Powell whose Manchester Central seat would fall to Nigel Farage along with former Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds and Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy
Reform is no longer limited to typically Tory seats – they are projected to flip 276 Labour seats as well as 4 Liberal Democrat seats and 4 SNP seats, with 84 taken from the Conservatives.
Labour is projected to hold onto 90 of its seats – predominantly in urban centres like London, and university towns.
This would be the smallest parliamentary Labour Party since 1931, with most of the Cabinet losing their seats.
276 seats are projected to flip to Reform, while the SNP takes 26 of Labour’s Scottish seats.
Labour are projected to take second place in 226 seats. In 106 of these they are pipped to victory by less than 10% of the vote.
