Music data experts at Manchester digital record label Ostereo have come up with the perfect formula for landing a Christmas number one ,and the one closest to it out of the last 50 number ones is The Pet Shop Boys ‘ Always on my Mind.
Having analysed every Christmas number one from the last half a century, starting with The Scaffold’s 1968 Christmas number one ‘Lily The Pink’, researchers at Ostereo say that to have the best chance of having a Christmas hit, a song needs to be …. three minutes and 57 seconds long, in the key of G Major, recorded at a tempo of 114 beats per minute and if possible, performed by a 27-year-old solo artist. For an extra shot of festive cheer, hitmakers should throw in a choir and some church bells.
The Pet Shop Boys’ Always on my Mind fits this formula most closely as it is in the key of G Major, 3:57 seconds long, is a cover, but is 125 bpm, so faster than the formula says. A close second is Boney M with Mary’s Boy , which is in Key of F Major (only two keys lower than G Major), 113 beats per minute (1bpm slower than the formula) and four minutes and two seconds, just 4 five seconds off being the perfect length.
The company, which developed its own algorithm to help its A&R team identify under-the-radar artists online, analysed data from Spotify and notation archives and studied a range of composition, recording and production characteristics to come up with their formula.
Howard Murphy, founder of Ostereo, says of its formula:
“You can’t turn an average song into a hit at any time of year – never mind Christmas -so adding sleigh bells to a Christmas song won’t make a difference if the song isn’t already great. But certain characteristics do make a song more likely to resonate with audiences at Christmas.
“Clever instrumentation can enhance the festive feel of the song. For example, without the church bells at the end, East 17’s ‘Stay Another Day’ is still a great song, but it’s not a Christmas song.”
The ideal length for a Christmas song is just under four minutes. The longest song to hit the top spot at Christmas was Michael Jackson’s ‘Earth Song’, which went on for almost seven minutes. The shortest song to hit the top spot was Bob The Builder’s ‘Can We Fix It?’
The data showed that Christmas number ones have been getting slower over the decades.
While the 1970s and 80s had upbeat Christmas number ones like Slade’s ‘Merry Xmas Everyone’, ‘Boney M’s ‘Mary’s Boy Child’ and Band Aid singles, things have slowed down in recent years as artists like Ed Sheeran, Clean Bandit, Matt Cardle, Leona Lewis and Alexandra Burke have favoured down-tempo ballads.
Says Howard: “Christmas songs do tend to be slower than average. Most pop songs sit around 120 beats per minute, but the average Christmas number one is 114 bpm, which feels noticeably slower.
People are winding down and relaxing over Christmas, so slower numbers like Ed Sheeran’s ‘Perfect’ from last year and Mud’s ‘Lonely This Christmas’ tend to fit the mood better. Both are below 100 beats per minute.
Although songs in minor keys have hit number one at Christmas, such as ‘Don’t You Want Me?’ by The Human League (A minor), ‘Mad World’ by Girls Aloud (C minor) and 2016’s number one ‘Rockabye’ by Clean Bandit (A minor) they’re not remembered as Christmas songs and tend to be too melancholy. Only eight Christmas number ones were written in a minor key.
“Major keys work better for Christmas hits,” says Howard. “Quintessentially festive songs all benefit from the uplifting and optimistic mood of major key. Think Slade’s ‘Merry Xmas Everybody’ (G Major) and Bony M’s ‘Mary’s Boy Child’ (F Major).
“Although the most common key for Christmas number ones over the last half century is C major, G major is becoming far more common. I think this is due to the increase in songwriters also being multi-instrumentalists.
“C major is the go-to key for pianists as it’s the most convenient – anyone who remembers playing around with just the white notes will have been playing in the key of C major. For guitarists, because of the way the instrument is tuned, E major tends to be a popular key.”
“The reason we’re seeing more Christmas hits in the key of G is because it’s a reasonably convenient key for both piano and guitar players to compose in.”
The researchers identified a number of Christmas song trends. 42% of Christmas number ones were cover versions, the vast majority were ballads and only ten, fewer than one in five of all Christmas number ones since 1968, are actually songs about Christmas.
Howard explains the popularity of covers: “Covers are actually a great way of connecting with a wider audience. Some of our artist have launched their careers with sympathetic, tastefully produced covers.
“There are two types of Christmas number one cover versions. There’s the relatively obscure cover versions, like ‘When We Collide’ by Matt Cardle and ‘Mad World’ by Gary Jules, and the more nostalgic songs like ‘He Ain’t Heavy’ and ‘Hallelujah’.
“Obscure covers work well because the artist can breathe new life into a song – and in many cases boost the profile of the original performer. Well known covers are a safe bet to be more broadly popular across the board.
“Re-releases can work well too at Christmas. Music consumers adopt different buying habits at Christmas because getting a particular song to number one can be seen as a challenge or bit of mischief, so they’re more likely to download or listen to a song outside of their normal preferences.”
“Three different versions of Do They Know It’s Christmas have been at number 1 for Christmas, and Rage Against The Machine, Queen and Jackie Wilson have all had Christmas number ones with songs they originally put out years earlier.”
Howard concludes: “I think we’re a long way from an algorithmically generated Christmas number one, but technology and data will certainly help play a part in identifying potential trends and untapped niches.
“For example, if data can tell us that people respond best to a certain tempo or a specific key, there’s no reason not to use that information in the writing process.”
