The Bank of England’s monthly survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses that there will be a hit to jobs rising a little in the next two quarters when it peaks at 11%, and falling back only a touch in the first quarter of 2021.
Businesses expected their sales in this current quarter to be 38% lower than they would otherwise have been because of Covid-19, employment to be 8% lower and investment to be 38% lower.
Sales were expected to recover only gradually over the next year with the negative impact from Covid-19 lessening while Investment was expected to recover somewhat more slowly than sales, but was still on an upward trajectory.
Bosses reported that 30% of employees had been furloughed in June (still employed but not required to work any hours), down from 36% in May. The proportion of workers furloughed was expected to fall to 18% and 5% in the next two quarters
Firms expected their unit costs to be 7% higher, on average, than they would have been in as a result of implementing measures to contain coronavirus, such as social distancing.
Overall uncertainty fell slightly in June compared to May but remained well above the level recorded in February and March. 74% of firms viewed overall economic uncertainty as high or very high in June, down from 76% in May and 84% in April.