Analysis by statistical experts from the Centre for Sports Business at the University of Salford has revealed the impact just two star signings could make to Manchester United’s season.
Ibrahimovic and Pogba will be joining Jose Mourinho’s squad for next season, after protracted negotiations in Pogba’s case. Now SAM, the Sport Analytics Machine, which has been developed by statisticians using a series of algorithms, and is able to forecast the results of a variety of sporting fixtures, has given its verdict on the signings.
Between them striker Ibrahimovic and midfielder Pogba can be expected to add a huge 10 points to United’s total at the end of the season, despite neither impressing at the Euro 16 tournament. That means it could be money well spent as ten extra points last season would have left United in the lucrative Champion’s League places. And together they increase United’s chances of winning the league from 2% to 6%.
Thirty-four year old Swede Ibrahimovic, makes the biggest difference, adding 8 points on his own the United’s total. As a free signing, allbeit on significant wages, he looks something of a bargain. French midfielder Pogba, 23, on the other hand cost £89m and can be expected to add 1.3 points to United’s total. That is far less that Ibrahimovic but still a decent impact for one player, especially one with most of his career ahead of him.
To come up with the result experts at Salford ran the full season through SAM 10,000 times.
SAM takes into account multiple factors to come up with its results, such as which team is at home, the strength of teams that both sides have played as well as the quality and the form of the players on the pitch.
Ian McHale, Professor of Sports Analytics at The University of Salford, said: “We simulated the result of every match of the season with and without Pogba and Ibrahimovic in United’s side. Attacking players can make the biggest difference on the pitch and this just shows what a bargain Ibrahmovic could prove to be, as United picked him up for free.
“Pogba on the other hand was expensive, some may think he was overpriced and our stats show he is not likely to have as big an impact as Zlatan, but he is one for the future and if he helps propel United into the Champions League then it will be money well spent.
“These results are entirely based on real data. Data is the fuel of our system, and the algorithms are the engine. It is entirely done using numbers, there is nothing subjective about the results that SAM comes up with.”
The team at Salford have also predicted that we could see the first billion pound player in 2032, just sixteen years away.
