Reform UK would become Britain’s largest political party if an election was held today putting Nigel Farage in prime position to become Britain’s next prime minister
YouGov’s first MRP since Labour’s landslide election victory suggests that Labour would lose 233 of the 411 seats it won last July with Greater Manchester MP’s and Cabinet Ministers Angela Rayner, Jonathan Reynolds and Lisa Nandy among the casualties
Reform is on track to have 266 new MPs, up from the five that it has at present, and making it the largest party in a hung Parliament
The Tories would lose another 75 seats – leaving Kemi Badenoch’s party with just 46 MPs, behind not just Labour and Reform but also the Liberal Democrats
As well as winning just 224 seats between them in the central projection, the two traditional powerhouse parties of British politics, Labour and the Conservatives, would win a combined vote share of just 41%, down from 59% last year. That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.
Among the electoral casualties would be seven current cabinet ministers, most notably deputy prime minister Angela Rayner in Ashton-under-Lyne and home secretary Yvette Cooper in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley.
They would be joined in this misery by education secretary Bridget Phillipson in Houghton and Sunderland South; business secretary Jonathan Reynolds in Stalybridge and Hyde, culture secretary Lisa Nandy in Wigan, defence secretary John Healey in Rawmarsh and Conisbrough; and cabinet office minister Pat McFadden in Wolverhampton South East.
However no party would find it straightforward to form a government. If Reform attempted to build a coalition with the Conservatives they would still be nine seats short of a majority
