Labour are predicted to comfortably win the Greater Manchester by-election, whether the run-off is against the Greens or Reform according to a poll out today
The poll puts Labour: 38% Greens: 22% Reform UK: 19% Restore Britain: 9% Conservatives: 8% Lib Dems: 3% and Independent: 1%
The poll by Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 1,505 Greater Manchester adults on 7th to 13th July which is representative by: Gender, Age, District, Ethnicity and 2024 General Election
The results show that Labour will win the by-election with relative ease.
Although they don’t gain a majority of votes cast, they are far ahead of other parties in the first vote, and are clearly ahead in the run-off whether that is against the Greens (64-36) or Reform (66-34)
Reform may narrowly miss out on the run-off. However the gap between them and the Greens is within the margin of error, making second place too close to call
This survey predicts overall turnout to only be 39%. However, that would still be the highest ever turnout recorded for a Greater Manchester mayoral election
