The government expects to lift all remaining restrictions including social distancing and the requirement to wear masks on 19 July after ministers were encouraged by the “very, very” low number of deaths from coronavirus and the slowdown in infections.
According to reports in the Times, as long as current trends continue the one metre-plus social distancing rule and the “rule of six” on indoor gatherings will be lifted, along with the limit on mass gatherings outdoors. Nightclubs are expected to reopen.
The news comes as the Politico website published details of a leaked report that found that keeping non-pharmaceutical interventions after step four in the Prime Minister’s roadmap would cost the industry billions, according to Politico.
The review, dubbed the Events Research Programme, found that even relatively small ones like face masks would have such a massive impact.
According to the document there are three possible scenarios:
‘High intervention’: This scenario saw social distancing scrapped, but mandatory face masks for a maximum of two hours, COVID certification (showing either vaccination or a negative test result), attendance caps and a ban on food or drink being served.
The program found the consequences would be ruinous, with the events industry as a whole averaging turnover of just 69 percent of its 2019 level. Indoor seated venues such as the arts, cinemas and business events had it even worse, projected to achieve just 59 percent of their 2019 turnover — costing them around £4.88 billion over the next year. Indoor non-seated events such as nightclubs and live music would plummet to just 37 percent of their 2019 turnover. Outdoor non-seated venues such as music festivals would fall to 64 percent.
‘Medium intervention’: This meant masks for two hours, COVID certification and a ban on alcohol being served. The results were also extremely grim: On average the whole industry would achieve just 78 percent of its 2019 turnover. Indoor seated venues would reach only 71 percent, indoor non-seated just 48 percent.
‘Low intervention’: The most lenient measures considered saw face masks listed as the only blanket rule. According to the findings of the Events Research Programme, the impact on businesses of even this most minimal of interventions was still major.
The entire events industry would reach just 82 percent of its 2019 turnover. Indoor seated venues would get just 72 percent. Indoor non-seated just 65 percent. Outdoor non-seated venues would manage just 82 percent of their 2019 figure.
