While Andy Burnham has been quoted by the bookies to become Labour’s next leaderthere are many hurdles still to cross for Greater Manchester’s Mayor before he gets to Parliament let alone becoming the next Prime Minister
Firstly Labour’s NEC has to allow him to stand Unlike the Gorton and Denton by election when he was blocked Kier Starmer has indicated that he will be allowed to stand with the NEC likely to convene next Tuesday to approve the move though some reports say it could be as soon as today
The earliest that a by election could take place would be according to reports the 18th June
Assuming his wins, there would likely be a leadership contest across the summer with a coronation in time for Labour’s annual conference in September
But the big question is would he win
Polling guru John Curtice has said that Labour’s chances of holding Makerfield would be below five percent “if it were anybody other than Andy Burnham” standing there. Even then, Curtice warns Burnham’s increasingly pro-European tone could count against him in an area that voted so heavily to leave the EU.
The Britain Predicts shows Reform on 41 per cent to Labour’s 28 per cent.
Burnham would be running under a slogan of vote Labour to get Starmer out, strikingly similar to Reform’s slogan at last week’s local elections
Reform who won over 50 per cent of the vote in the eight wards which make up the seat will be in the words of Nigel Farage be throwing the kitchen sink at it and will surely pick a stronger candidate than Matt Goodwin
The Greens it is rumoured with run an underwhelming campaign and instead concentrate on securing the vacant Mayorality of Greater Manchester
And on that subject who will replace him as Labour candidate in that battle that will cost £5 million to organise?
For clarity Burnham remains Mayor until or if he wins the Parliamentary seat and would then have to forfeit the Mayoral spot to trigger a new election
If he were to lose the by election in theory he could continue as Mayor
As one pundit puts it
“So Andy, after you lost a by-election to Reform, and caused a by-election in your Mayoral seat which we lost, what did you do next..?“
It is going to be an interesting few months in the region
