A new report out today lays bare the scale and severity of the problems facing whichever party wins the general election.
The Institute for Government report reveals how underperforming public services, battered public finances, tensions within the Union, and a fragile civil service will dominate and define the first years of the next government, if not the entire parliament.
Most public services are performing worse than at the time of the 2019 election and substantially worse than in 2010 day the Institute
Many, such as rescuing services on the brink of collapse or facing another winter crisis, require urgent action.
Almost all, including boosting regional growth and strengthening the Union, will require reform over at least the next Parliament.
Without an honest reckoning with the problems the next government will inherit – or resume responsibility for – from the minute it takes office, the visions they are selling to voters are simply not achievable.
Hospital performance is arguably the worst in the NHS’s history: waiting times have been the longest on record, and targets for elective care, A&E and cancer treatment have not been met since 2016. 1.5 million people waited more than 12 hours in A&Es in 2023/24 – more than triple the number in 2019.
Prisons are at a crisis point, with potential for capacity to be exceeded soon after the election, forcing further early releases of prisoners and delayed court cases. Despite this, funding is set to fall by 5.9% each year relative to demand in the next parliament.
Current spending plans assume further cuts to the precarious criminal justice system, minimal change in schools or local government, and minor improvements in health.
Growth has stagnated, tax and spend levels are historically high, and spending assumptions are implausible says the report adding that Standards of living have fallen since 2019 and will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2025.
The pandemic response, amongst other things, means government debt, tax and spend are all higher than for decades.
Fiscal headroom – to spend on public services or government programmes – is tight, and predicated on delivering further cuts and unrealistic assumptions.
The report also points out that Major cities outside of London are much less productive than their international comparators, with Greater Manchester and the West Midlands being more than 10% below the national average.
Emma Norris, IfG deputy director, said:
“Few newly elected prime ministers will have had to take on such a long and painful list of problems. Many will require immediate attention, not least to rescue services on the brink of collapse. Almost all – from stagnant growth to a fragile civil service – will require serious reform over the next parliament and beyond.”
