A lethal triple mix of COVID-19, influenza, and the respiratory virus Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), could push an already depleted NHS to breaking point this winter unless we act now, says a new report released today
The report from the Academy of Medical Science was commissioned by the Government’s Chief Scientist Sir Patrick Vallance.
It says that a potential surge in respiratory viruses could cause widespread ill health and put pressure on the NHS.
New modelling carried out for the report suggests this winter influenza and RSV hospital admissions and deaths could be two times that of a ‘normal’ year and could coincide with an increase of COVID-19 infections, and their associated long-term consequences.
Dealing with the current third wave of COVID-19, as well as multiple subsequent outbreaks, between summer 2021 and spring 2022, meaning the NHS cannot catch up with the backlog of routine care.
The NHS is already under pressure, and so is likely to be less able to cope with extra winter health challenges. Before the pandemic, winter bed occupancy in the NHS regularly exceeded 95%. This year the NHS will also be operating with a reduced number of beds because of infection control measures.
The report also highlights that the NHS is reporting a shortage of nearly 84,000 staff, and a shortage of 2,500 GPs. Staff fatigue and burnout will also be a challenge.
Worse physical and mental health in the UK population – including that due to delayed diagnosis and treatment and other impacts of the pandemic – could lead to even higher rates of conditions such as asthma, COPD, heart attack and stroke this winter.
Professor Sir Stephen Holgate FMedSci, Chair of the Expert Advisory Group, said:
“Despite a highly successful COVID-19 vaccine campaign, the pandemic is not over yet. The message from our report is clear – COVID-19 is still with us and remains a threat to our health both directly and indirectly. All parts of society need to take action to head off the serious health risks we are facing now, and in the future.”
