The Conservative Government’s 2021 commitment to deliver 20,000 new prison places is not expected to be achieved until 2031 – around five years later than planned
A report out this morning by the National Audit office also concluded that current expansion plans are insufficient to meet estimated future demand, with a projected shortage of 12,400 places by end of 2027 and that expansion costs are expected to be at least £4.2bn (80%) above original estimates in 2021
In a damning conclusion the NAO says that the prison capacity crisis is the result of previous governments’ failure to ensure that the number of prison places was aligned with criminal justice policies such as sentencing and police numbers.
Coupled with delays in the current expansion plans, this has led to a reactive and expensive approach that will not meet future demand or deliver value for money in the long-term
The new date for completing the remaining places is 2031 – five years later than expected – increasing pressure on capacity and costing more.
Prison capacity is projected to increase more slowly than demand and MoJ currently projects a shortage of 12,400 places by 2027, if demand increases according to its central forecast.
It is relying on the current Sentencing Review to reduce demand for prison places and close the gap.
There are several reasons for delays to the Ministry of Justice’s and HMPPS’s prison expansion plans, including overestimating its ability to gain planning permission for three out of the six new prisons it had planned to build; unrealistic timelines;
insufficient understanding of programme requirements and government bodies not working together to prioritise delivery.
The MoJ and HMPPS now expect the prison expansion plans to cost between £9.4 billion and £10.1 billion, which will be at least £4.2 billion over previous estimates stated in 2021.
Contributing to the overspend are several significant cost increases. These include the cost of Rapid Deployment Cells (RDC), units with a lifespan of 15 years, that will deliver one thousand places at least three years later than planned; as well as inflation in the construction sector, where prices have risen by 40%.
Over 2020 and 2021, the MoJ increased the scale of its prison expansion plans from 13,400 to 20,000 additional places by the mid-2020s. Despite plans to build six new prisons, refurbish existing prisons and install temporary accommodation, HMPPS has been unable to increase prison places in line with demand. This has resulted in the prison estate operating at close to or at full capacity for over two years.
In October 2024 there were 85,900 people in prison across England and Wales, a 3% reduction since 6 September 2024, following the early release of at least 3,100 prisoners to manage severe capacity issues.
