One in four of England’s most disadvantaged students drop out of education or training at age 16, compared to one in ten of their more affluent peers.
That means persistently disadvantaged pupils are nearly three times more likely than their peers to disappear from education and training at 16.
The national picture conceals a regional postcode lottery: in the South West nearly one in three of the poorest pupils are not in education or training at 16, rising to more than one in two in the worst-performing local authorities.
The report by Teach First calls on Government to address structural challenges by tracking persistent disadvantage data nationally, and introducing a persistent disadvantage top-up to the pupil premium.
They found that by the time they sit their GCSEs, persistently disadvantaged pupils are already behind by nearly two full years of learning compared to peers; in the South East, that gap stretches to almost 26 months.
England’s poorest students are nearly three times more likely than their peers to disappear from school or training at 16, with significant disparities between England’s regions, according to new research.
The data analysis, commissioned by Teach First as part of its new Rewrite the Future campaign and conducted by the Education Policy Institute, reveals the outcome gap that persistently disadvantaged pupils — eligible for Free School Meals for at least 80% of their time in school — face.
Teach First’s research examines the proportion of students who are not studying a studying towards a substantial qualification (equivalent to at least one GCSE) or an apprenticeship at the start of year 12.
It finds that one in every four (25.5%) of persistently disadvantaged students is not progressing to a qualification or apprenticeship at age 16. This stands in stark contrast to their non-disadvantaged peers, of whom only one in 11 (9%) exit education and training at the same stage. The research follows the recent publication of the Government’s Young people and work: interim report conducted by Rt Hon Alan Milburn, which found that the UK faces one of the highest rates of NEET youth in Europe, in a ‘national crisis of opportunity’.
The national figure conceals a postcode lottery in young people’s futures. In the South West of England, a third (31.5%) of persistently disadvantaged pupils are not progressing to a qualification or apprenticeship at age 16 — the highest rate of all regions. Following suite are the South East (29.7% of persistently disadvantaged pupils), East Midlands (29.3%), and Yorkshire and the Humber (29.1%). London records the lowest rate by a significant margin, at 15.4%.
This extends to local authorities. In North Somerset, where rates are highest, more than half (51.3%) of persistently disadvantaged pupils do not progress to a sustained post-16 pathway. In Derby, the figure stands at 45.6%, in Blackpool 41.7%, and in Barnsley 41.5%. Meanwhile, in London’s top-performing boroughs like Camden, the equivalent figure is 10.3%, and in Tower Hamlets, 11.1%.
The post-16 destinations crisis is founded on a school attainment gap established before Year 11. By the time persistently disadvantaged pupils sit their GCSEs, they are on average 22.4 months — nearly two full years of learning — behind their wealthier counterparts.
This attainment discrepancy follows regional patterns too. In the South East, persistently disadvantaged pupils are 25.9 months behind their non-disadvantaged peers by Year 12, the largest gap of all English regions. A persistently disadvantaged pupil in the South East is, on average, sitting their GCSEs with the level of learning their non-disadvantaged peers had reached in Year 9.
The lowest performing local authorities for persistently disadvantaged attainment –– including Blackpool, Reading, and Cheshire West and Chester –– record average grades of just 2.7 in English and maths, over one full grade below a standard pass.
The research does offer cause for optimism, but also cause for concern about how unevenly it is distributed. Of 2,554 state-funded mainstream secondary schools analysed, 88 saw their persistently disadvantaged pupils outperform their wealthier peers –– demonstrating that for this group, poor education outcomes are not inevitable. However, a regional chasm appears here too, with 56 of those 88 schools in London.
James Toop, CEO of Teach First, said:
“Our research makes clear that persistent disadvantage is more than a national crisis — it is also a local one, playing out differently in every region, every local authority, every school. A child growing up in poverty in Blackpool has a one in two chance of falling out of education or training entirely at 16. The system is not failing them equally; in fact, it is failing some of them far more. We cannot close a gap we don’t measure, which is why we’re calling on the Government to track this group in national data for the first time. Change is possible and many schools are already proving it, and we look forward to working with the Government to increase that number.
Children’s Commissioner Dame Rachel de Souza said:
“Every child deserves the opportunity to succeed in life, regardless of their family income or where they live. Children and young people all over the country consistently tell me they want qualifications and good jobs for positive futures, but all too often disadvantaged children are leaving education and training at 16, limiting their future opportunities. There must be greater attention and focus to identify and support children facing persistent disadvantage, so that every young person has access to high quality academic, vocational or apprentice routes at 16.”
