Researchers at The University of Manchester have developed a new way to design Earth-observation satellite missions that could help protect the space environment while continuing to deliver vital data for tackling global challenges, such as climate change, food production, supply chain vulnerabilities and environmental degradation.
Earth-observation satellites are increasingly relied upon to support efforts to meet the United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), providing critical data on issues like land use, urban development, ecosystems and disaster response. However, the rapid growth of satellite missions is also making Earth’s orbits more crowded and hazardous, increasing the risk of collisions and the creation of long-lasting space debris.
There are currently around 11,800 active satellites in orbit, but some predictions suggest that number could rise to more than 100,000 by the end of the decade. Collisions in space can generate large amounts of debris, threatening satellites, astronauts and the long-term usability of key orbital regions.
The new model, which links satellite mission objectives with collision risk as a key first step in mission design, is presented in the journal Advances in Space Research.
Lead author John Mackintosh, PhD researcher at The University of Manchester, said: “Our research addresses what is described as a “space sustainability paradox”, the risk that using satellites to solve environmental and social challenges on Earth could ultimately undermine the long-term sustainability of space itself.
“By integrating collision risk into early mission design, we ensure Earth-observation missions can be planned more responsibly, balancing data quality with the need to protect the orbital environment.”
