The Growth  in mainstream school funding per pupil in England in 2025–26  won’t be sufficient to cover the expected increase in school costs according to a report out this morning
Despite  pupil numbers being expected to fall by around 2% over the next two years, this is unlikely to allow for a cut in the overall schools budget.
Meanwhile rapid rises in the cost of special educational needs (SEN) provision seem likely to wipe out any opportunities for savings, evenif core per-pupil funding is kept constant in real terms.

 

These are the main conclusions of the new ‘Annual report on education spending in England: 2024–25’ by researchers at the IFS, published today, and funded by the Nuffield Foundation.

The report also found that between 2019 and 2024, total school spending in England grew by about £8 billion. This led to 11% real-terms growth in school spending per pupil and fully reverses cuts since 2010.

However over half of the rise in school funding has been absorbed by rising costs of SEN.

After accounting for planned spending on high needs (which is a statutory requirement), the report estimates that mainstream school funding per pupil grew by 5% in real terms between 2019 and 2024, rather than the 11% total increase.

Luke Sibieta, IFS Research Fellow and author said:

‘This year’s spending review will bring a lot of difficult choices on education funding in England. A very tight picture on the public finances means that most departments, including education, will probably need to make savings. Working out exactly how and where is much easier said than done. Spiralling costs of special educational needs provision seem likely to wipe out any opportunities for savings in the schools budget from falling pupil numbers. College and sixth form budgets are already stretched, and will need to cover the cost of rising student numbers. The inflation-linked rise in tuition fees only provided a brief reprieve for university finances, and further tuition fee rises seem likely.’

Josh Hillman, Director of Education at the Nuffield Foundation said:

 ‘Amidst a tough fiscal climate and competing priorities, the IFS’s annual report delivers essential, independent analysis of the winners and losers in education spending. The analysis outlines the complex web of factors influencing the government’s decision-making on funding for the early years, school pupils, and further and higher education students. It highlights a range of challenges suggesting that the spending squeeze for schools and colleges will continue, but some gains for the under-5s.’

Julie McCulloch, Director of Policy at the Association of School and College Leaders, responding  to a report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies

“This report reveals the reality that is facing many schools and colleges – yet another round of cutbacks. It will inevitably mean further reductions to pastoral support, curriculum options and classroom resources. It is also likely that in many cases class sizes will increase. Schools and colleges have been expected to absorb relentless financial pressures over the past 15 years, and they have done an incredible job in minimising the impact on students. But we cannot go on like this. It is death by a thousand cuts. The government must recognise the importance of improved investment in education.”

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