Covid infections should be back to the levels of last summer by March accordin to the latest forecasts from the King’s College ZOE symptom tracker.
There are currently 14,818 daily new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on swab tests data from up to five days ago .
This compares to 20,360 daily new symptomatic cases a week ago, a decrease of 27%. Since the peak of 69,000 daily new cases around the 1st January, cases have fallen by around 79%.
In two weeks (25th February), they predicts that there will be 5,761 new daily cases and an estimated 1 in 457 active cases. On the 8th of March, when it is hoped schools will be able to open again, the ZOE app predicts that there will be 3,373 new daily cases,the same levels last seen at the beginning of June 2020.
Cases are coming down in all age groups, with the daily new cases in age groups closer than they have been for many months they add.
Tim Spector OBE, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app and Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, comments on the latest data:
“Based on the ZOE data and our predictions we are soon to be in the same place we were in early June, with the advantage of having a large proportion of the population vaccinated which could mean good news in terms of lifting some restrictions sooner rather than later. By 8th March we should have less than 1 in 740 people with symptoms allowing us to get kids back into the classrooms and starting to allow people to exercise and meet, at least outdoors, where the risk of transmission is much lower.
Until then it’s important to keep following the guidelines, even if you have had a vaccine, and keep reporting symptoms and getting tested even if your symptoms are not typical.”
