The UK’s ability to feed itself is set to be reduced by nearly a tenth, new analysis reveals, as farmers across the country have been hit by one of the wettest winters on record.
The report out today by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), estimates that the projected reduction in key arable crops as a result of lower crop area and poor yields will reduce UK self-sufficiency across all farming sectors by 8% when measured by volume , declining from an average of 86% between 2018 and 2022 to 78% this year. The UK could become dependent on foreign imports for around a third of its wheat, with wheat self-sufficiency estimated to decline from 92% in the same period to 68%.
With soils too waterlogged and many fields flooded for much of the winter, many farmers have not been able to establish crops. Climate scientists warn that warmer, wetter winters like the one we have just experienced are projected to become increasingly common as the world warms, raising concerns about the impact of climate change on UK food security.
The analysis comes as the Prime Minister hosts farmers and farming representatives at Downing Street for his ‘Farm to Fork Summit’.
Commenting, Tom Lancaster, land analyst at ECIU said, “In 2021, the Government warned that climate change was the biggest medium to long term threat to our food security. This analysis suggests that it is the biggest risk now, not at some far off point in the future.
“Ultimately, we need to support our farmers to better cope with climate extremes, and Defra’s new green farming schemes will be crucial in this, building the resilience of our soils to floods and droughts, as well as planting trees and hedgerows that will trap carbon and slow flood waters.
“The UK depends on foreign imports for the foods we cannot grow here, so if we are to try to sustain the supply we have at the minute, we simply can’t grow everything we have now on British soil, so will also need to think about supporting farmers in other, often poorer and more climate vulnerable, countries.”
