The number of pupils with the highest levels of assessed special educational needs has increased by over 60% since 2015
This has driven a £3.5 billion increase in the high-needs budget, which has used up nearly half of the £7.6 billion increase in school spending since 2015 according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies
They say that average teacher pay is 6% lower in real terms than in 2010, and about the same level in real terms as in 2001. This may help explain some of the recruitment and retention problems in the teacher labour market.
Spending on school buildings is about 25% lower than in the mid 2000s and about 40% below what the government thinks is needed to ensure school buildings are in a good state of repair.
Pupil numbers are expected to fall by more than 5% over the next parliament. This could create opportunities for savings, which may help offset the 2–3.5% cuts currently projected for unprotected areas of public service spending. However, realising savings would almost certainly require workforce reductions and/or school closures.
Luke Sibieta, IFS Research Fellow and author of the report, said:
‘A £6 billion increase in English school funding since 2019 has reversed past cuts to spending per pupil and leaves spending per pupil about the same level in real terms as in 2010.
‘Looking to the coming parliament, policymakers are caught between a rock and a hard place. On current plans, many other areas of public service spending appear to be facing cuts under either a Conservative or a Labour government. An incoming government might thus be tempted to cut school spending in response to falling pupil numbers. Realising such savings could be easier said than done as it would likely require workforce reductions and, perhaps, school closures. This is probably why policymakers have shied away from making cuts to total school spending in the past. There is also a growing list of pressures on school spending, which may become harder to address over time, such as the spiralling cost of special educational needs provision, real-terms cuts to teacher pay and a growing backlog of repairs to school buildings.’
