The average global temperature is likely to continue to reach record or near-record levels in the coming five years analysis from the World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Met Office has warned in a report out this morning
This level of warming will increase climate risks, especially for vulnerable societies.
Although the average temperature over the next five years is likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this does not represent a breach of the Paris Agreement, which refers to a long-term warming typically over 20 years.
The world’s global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average last year (2024) for the first time in the observational record.
This was in part due to the El Niño phase of a natural cycle of climate variation in the tropical Pacific which slightly and temporarily raises global temperature but was primarily due to anthropogenic global warming.
It is likely (86% chance) that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2025 and 2029. It is also likely that the five-year mean for 2025-2029 will exceed 1.5°C (70% chance).
There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024) and – although exceptionally unlikely – there is a small possibility of reaching 2.0°C above 1850-1900 levels for the first time in one of the next five years.
Long-term warming (averaged over decades) still remains below 1.5°C.
Arctic warming is predicted to continue exceeding the global average.
Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2025-2029, relative to the 1991-2020 average, suggest anomalously wet conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and anomalously dry for this season over the Amazon.
The Met Office’s Dr Leon Hermanson, who led the production of the report, said: “Despite a fairly neutral five-year forecast for ENSO, this latest forecast suggests that even the coming five-year average is likely to be above 1.5 degrees.”
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, said: “Previous forecasts for a single year above 1.5 degrees proved to be correct when 2024 exceeded this level. This new forecast is for even higher levels of global temperature and shows clear regional effects on weather patterns around the world.”
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
